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German light aircraft manufacturer Flight Design is hoping to emerge from administration in the second quarter, following “productive talks” with potential investors. The Wildau-based developer of the CT-series of high-wing, light sport aircraft and


واضح آرشیو وب فارسی:تین نیوز: TIN news: Exporters and importers (shippers) in South Germany can now use new port and routing options that take advantage of increased competition between ports, maritime carriers and rail operators. For shippers, a Best Route is the route that has the best mix of cost, transit time and resilience. Best Routes are not static; they can change due to fluctuations in relative freight rates or more fundamental changes in the wider transport context. For South Germany, both are happening now. For the purpose of this paper, we have equated South Germany to two Bundesländer – Baden-Württemberg and Bavaria – that are geographically at the heart of Europe. These Bundesländer have a combined population of 23.5 million and contain several logistics clusters with activities in the automotive (Daimler, Audi, Porsche, BMW), mechanical and electrical engineering (Bosch, Siemens), and chemical industries, among others. The logistics clusters are shown in Table 1 and Chart 1. Munich, the most populous city (population of 1.4 million), is between 500 km and 850 km from any deep-sea port: This “landlocked” location is a curse as well as a blessing. On the one hand, inland transportation costs are high and shippers are dependent on transport operators for a key element of their product delivery namely timely dispatch or delivery. On the other hand, because of its central location, South German shippers can choose their Best Route from the numerous alternatives should an operator fail to deliver on promises. Marine connectivity for imports from Shanghai to South Germany South German shippers can consider the following ports for their imports and exports. Northern Gate: Antwerp, Rotterdam, Hamburg Southern Gate: Genoa, Venice, Trieste, Koper, Rijeka, La Spezia, Ravenna The relevant maritime trade routes are the Asia-North Europe and Asia-Mediterranean trade routes. On the Asia-North Europe trade, 100% of the capacity is deployed by only four mega alliances (2M, O3, G6 and CKYHE), providing 16 weekly departures with a total floating capacity of 2.5 million teu; 2M is the biggest player with 37% of the total capacity followed by CKYHE and O3 (23% each), and G6 (17%). The average ship size on this trade is 14,509 teu. The Asia-Mediterranean trade is also dominated by the four mega alliances that cover 93% of the total trade, providing 15 weekly departures with a total floating capacity of 1.4 million teu. In this trade also, 2M is the biggest player, laying on 35% of the total floating capacity, followed by Ocean Three (32%), CKYHE (19%) and G6 (7%). The average ship size is 8,131 teu. The MED Ports that are relevant for South Germany are covered by nine services Based on the deployed vessel size and continuing upscaling on both trade routes, we exclude Venice and Ravenna from the scope. Rotterdam has the best maritime connectivity in the Northern Gate with 15 of the 16 services calling at the port. The service coverage is also homogeneous, illustrating the commitment of each alliance to offer their best possible service to Rotterdam by making it an anchor port of their string: – All four alliances have at least one service offering Shanghai-Rotterdam with a transit time of 29 days. – Eight of the 15 services, two for each alliance, have Rotterdam as a first port of call (within the relevant port set). Hamburg receives calls from 13 of the 16 services in the Northern Gate. Seven of those have Hamburg as a first port of call: three for CKYHE, two for 2M and one each for O3 and G6. CKYHE’s commitment to Hamburg is illustrated by its NE8 service, which offers the best transit time of 29 days, and its NE6 service which, together with 2M’s AE2/Swan service, offers 30 days. Antwerp has to settle with only six Asia-Europe service calls, or less than half the services calling at Hamburg. These six services generate eight calls because two services from 2M make a double call to benefit from the export volumes generated in the Antwerp hinterland. Volumes at Antwerp are boosted by MSC’s European Hub strategy which links a network of dedicated block trains with its AE2/Swan service that offers a market leading transit time of 25 days from Shanghai. Genoa is called by five of the nine Southern Gate services, giving it the best maritime connectivity of all the Southern Gate ports in this study, but far fewer than Rotterdam and Hamburg in the Northern Gate. Genoa receives two services from CKYHE and one each from the other three alliances. The best transit time of 27 days is offered by CKYHE, followed closely by 2M’s AE20/Dragon offering 28 days. The average transit time is 29 days compared to 33 for the Northern Gate. La Spezia is called by four of the nine services, with 2M offering two direct calls, and O3 and CKYHE offering one each. There is no coverage from G6. Each alliance offers a transit time of 27 days to La Spezia, but the second 2M service offers 30 days. From the North Adriatic ports, Koper provides the best maritime connectivity with three direct calls, one each from 2M, O3 and CKYHE. O3’s PHEX/AMC4/AMX8 service makes a double call to load (re-)export volumes. 2M’s AE12/TP2/Phoenix/Jaguar service offers a 25-day transit time, making it a true competitor to Genoa as well as the Northern Gate. The same services call at Trieste, but since Trieste is the next call, the transit times are two to three days longer. Intermodal Connectivity Rotterdam’s large container throughput facilitates the setting up of block trains. From Rotterdam, direct connections are available to all the hinterland hubs except Ulm. For the other four logistics clusters, several rail operators offer competitive transit times and frequencies of a minimum of three departures per week. Hamburg is traditionally the strongest port for the South German hinterland. With DB Netze (the German rail infrastructure operator) pricing North-South connections (such as Hamburg to South Germany) cheaper than East-West connections for equal distances, Hamburg is likely to retain an important role in the foreseeable future. Several rail operators currently connect Hamburg to all five hubs with the highest frequency and often the fastest inland transit time. The hinterland strategy of Antwerp is not primarily focussed at South Germany and consequently the strong propositions that exist elsewhere can’t be assumed. Direct rail connections are only available for Munich and Weil-am-Rhein; the other logistics hubs can use Rotterdam’s rail connections and add a shunt by barge between Rotterdam and Antwerp. This adds a day of transit time and between euro 100 and 200 cost per container. Intermodal operators in the ports of Genoa and La Spezia are developing propositions that is expanding the port hinterland northwards. For now, they are aiming primarily at Switzerland and the corridor to North-Western European ports. In South Germany, Munich has the best connectivity. Rail connections with other clusters are theoretically possible but, at least for now, not at competitive rates or transit times. Koper is positioning itself as the lead port in the North Adriatic. It has a strong position in the hinterland traffic of Hungary and Austria but for South Germany it is only indirectly connected to Munich (via Ljubljana or Budapest) with an A-C transit time. But with five departures per week from Koper to the relay point and three onward connections to Munich, this is a viable option, especially for shippers who have time-sensitive cargoes and who can secure space on the 25-day transit deep-sea service from 2M. Trieste has traditionally been a key port for Central European imports (to Hungary, Slovakia, Austria and Czech Republic), but Koper has overtaken it in terms of teu throughput. Rail connections to South Germany are limited but for Munich there are several operators offering up to five weekly departures with an A-B transit time making the average transit by rail one day shorter than via Koper. By contrast for Ulm there is only 1 train per week. Routing options based on fastest maritime and average inland transit times Munich Munich is the best connected logistics cluster, having rail connections with all the relevant ports. The allin cost via Rotterdam is the lowest at $1,874 per 40ft high-cube container. The route via Hamburg is $70 more expensive but is one day faster with a total transit time of 32 days. Hamburg also offers more frequent rail departures, more operators and an A-B transit time, all of which improve the resilience. With total transit time of 30 days, Antwerp is the fastest connection for the Northern Gate, but the price is $150 more than via Rotterdam. The fastest routing overall is to be found on the Southern Gate: Shanghai-Munich via Koper is available in 29 days and at a price of $2,036 per 40ft high-cube container. Compared to Hamburg, this is three days faster at an extra cost of about $100. Shanghai-Munich via Koper is a true contender for Best Route for shippers with time-sensitive cargoes. Freiburg / Lörrach For the Freiburg / Lörrach logistics cluster, only the Northern Gate ports offer competitive connections. Rail connections from the Southern Gate to Basel exist, but due to the cross border haulage they are outside the scope of this white paper. Hamburg is the cheapest routing at $2,082 per 40ft high-cube container, but the cost via Rotterdam is only $16 higher. The cost via Antwerp at $2,248 is nearly $150 more than via Hamburg. Thanks to the fast maritime transit on 2M, Antwerp is able to compete with Hamburg on the overall transit time; however, the rail connection via Antwerp is three times per week on an A-E transit time while operators in Hamburg are able to offer five departures per week with an A-B transit time. So for an equal transit time and cheaper price, Hamburg offers much higher resilience than Antwerp. The routing via Rotterdam scores between Hamburg and Antwerp: with four weekly connections and AC transit times, resilience of this route is better than via Antwerp, and an overall transit time of 33 days puts Rotterdam firmly in the second place to serve this area. Stuttgart / Heilbronn Also for the Stuttgart / Heilbronn region, the Northern Gate is the only competitive option. Rotterdam is the cheapest routing at $1,924 per 40ft high-cube container and a transit time of 32 days, which is on par with Hamburg, from where the rate is about $20 more. But on the route via Hamburg there are more operators offering more frequent departures especially to Kornwestheim. Despite having to barge to Rotterdam, the route via Antwerp is the fastest with an overall transit time of 30 days. However, at a cost of $2,071 per 40ft high-cube container, Antwerp is $148 more expensive than Rotterdam and $126 more than Hamburg. In terms of resilience, Hamburg is again in the lead with operators offering five weekly departures with an A-B transit time. Rotterdam follows next with three weekly departures of A-B transit. While cargo from Antwerp connects onto the same trains, it needs one extra day for the barge shunt. Ulm Ulm is only served via Hamburg and Trieste. Via Hamburg, the rate is $1,944 per 40ft high-cube container, which is $176 less than via Trieste. Also the average transit time via Hamburg of 33 days is one day faster but this is based on Trieste only having one train per week to Ulm. Since that train connection is fast, if the ship connects well with the train, theoretically a transit of 31 days is possible. Still few shippers will be inclined to pay $176 extra for the shorter transit time bearing in mind that if they miss the train they will have to wait until next week’s train or pay for a full truck move. Nuremberg The Nuremberg logistics cluster is only connected by rail with the Northern Gate ports of Hamburg and Rotterdam. Cargo via Antwerp will use the barge service to Rotterdam to connect with the rail there. The routing via Rotterdam is the cheapest, at $1,891 per 40ft high-cube container, while the routing via Hamburg costs $89 more and via Antwerp $141 more. The superfast transit on 2M gives Antwerp a transit time advantage of one day over Hamburg and two days over Rotterdam; however, this comes at the expense of lower resilience: while Hamburg offers five connections per week with A-B transit time, Rotterdam offers the same frequency with A-C transit time, and from Antwerp the barge shunt makes it an A-D connection. Tracking relative ocean freight rates by port range Spot rates volatility reached new heights in 2015. Monthly indices for the Asia-North Europe trade, as tracked in our Container Freight Rate Insight (CFRI), had a standard deviation of $545 per 40ft. So if you were trying to predict the next month’s rates based on the one from the current month, you had a 30% chance that the rates went up or down by more than $545. With such stormy rate developments, some may have missed noticing the crumbling of a few long-held truths. One of them being that the cheapest route for Asian imports into Europe is via Northern European ports, when comparing port-to-port rates. What we have seen is that the cheapest route for Asian imports into Europe has shifted in favour of the Mediterranean ports. Indices for Asia-North Europe and Asia-Med Figure 3 shows a two-year time series of weekly spot rates on Shanghai-Rotterdam and ShanghaiGenoa as tracked in our weekly World Container Index (WCI). Rates on both trades are highly correlated, but rates via Rotterdam (Northern Gate) have historically been lower than those in Southern Gate, despite the longer sailing distance because of higher volumes and scale economies. Figure 4 zooms in on the last quarter of 2015 where the Southern Gate was the cheaper option in 10 of the 14 weeks. Therefore, clearly the Southern Gate is closing the gap it has historically had with the Northern Gate in terms of sea freight. Well-informed shippers closely tracked the spot rate market and selected the cheapest routing every week, saving 11% of their ocean-spend Also on the land side, several South European intermodal operators are developing exciting and competitive concepts. These efforts will be boosted when the Gotthard Base Tunnel (GBT) opens in June. The GBT will be the world’s longest traffic tunnel and will allow rail operators to improve their efficiency by increasing the length of the trains and reducing the travel time when crossing the Alps. Once this translates into cheaper rail rates, the area where the Southern Gate can compete will expand further North.


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